It seems to me that a credible estimate could come only from someone with a lot of experience with RC cars similar to your design. It depends on many things that aren't all that easy to measure or even quantify. Here are just a few areas of uncertainty that the estimate might depend on:
- friction in your axles
- friction due to your tires flexing at the floor
- texture of the floor surface (wood, carpet, or how short did you mow the grass)
- bumps and dips along the way
- relative static friction vs rolling friction
- how well does your speed controller react to varying load (like, if it strains to get unstuck and then suddenly darts away)
I would suggest that you just build one and test it with different weights. Then build another, and another. This endeavor has no ceiling. You can add sensors, add more power, add onboard computation, make it autonomous. Give it one or more arms, and end effectors. Make it recognize what it sees. Make it run races, dodge obstacles, fold laundry, fetch you a beverage from the fridge. And use your imagination, not mine!